When it came down to it, California’s Proposition 50 redistricting was chalked up to a pre-midterm elections referendum on President Donald Trump and his policies.

But that election is over now. Attention has swung to another one that has been percolating in the background: the race for California’s next governor.

That Proposition 50 playbook — for Democrats, it was invoking Trump; for Republicans, it was avoiding the president — could serve as a roadmap for the bevy of candidates hoping to break out in what’s been, thus far, a fairly lackluster gubernatorial campaign. However, experts say simply opposing or embracing Trump won’t be enough in this race.

“There’s a very significant difference between the two types of campaigns: A ballot initiative is an up-or-down vote, but a candidate election, particularly during a primary campaign, is a multiple-choice decision,” said Dan Schnur, who teaches political messaging at USC and UC Berkeley.

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Take the crowded field of Democratic candidates, where the race to replace a term-limited Gov. Gavin Newsom as California’s chief executive is particularly crowded. Just in the past week, billionaire environmentalist Tom Steyer and Rep. Eric Swalwell launched bids, the latter directly invoking the president in his announcement.

“The next governor of California has two jobs. One, keep the worst president in our history out of our homes, out of our streets and out of our lives,” said Swalwell, who also referenced his roles as a House manager in Trump’s 2021 impeachment trial in the spot.

Swalwell isn’t alone in tying a campaign message to the president.

Several Democratic contenders have criticized the Trump administration during various cable television interviews or campaigned against the administration’s proposals. Earlier this month, for example, former L.A. Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa said he would “oppose any new offshore drilling” in California as its governor, referring to the White House’s plan to renew oil exploration in federal waters off the coast of California.

But long term, candidates can’t focus solely on Trump, said Matt Lesenyie, an expert in political psychology who teaches at Cal State Long Beach.

“This is because I suspect Trump’s influence will wane by next summer,” Lesenyie said. “I expect Republican officials to put some distance between their 2026 campaigns and Trump. So you’ll look out of date battling a weakened president.”

“Democrats will need to take some bold positions — potentially on corporate influence, potentially on Middle East politics,” Lesenyie added.

As Schnur put it: Simply opposing Trump “is the beginning of an effective message, but it’s not nearly enough.”

“Most Democratic voters are going to assume that any candidate from their party is going to be an effective opponent to Trump. Arguing that you’ll be slightly more forceful or vocal than the others may not be a particularly effective strategy,” he said.

“So the Democrat who makes it through the (primary) runoff will be a virulent opponent, but in order to set themselves apart from the rest of the field, they have to do more than that, too.”

As for the Republican contenders in the race — Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and former Fox News host Steve Hilton are the two frontrunners on the GOP side — the Trump question is a bit trickier, particularly in these next few months before the June 2 primary.

And it’s possibly a “no-win” situation for them, California political experts said.

“If they embrace Trump, they get vilified here in the state. If they distance themselves, he could very likely come after them,” said Schnur.

“There aren’t nearly enough Trump supporters to sway the general election, but there might be just enough to make it (to) through the runoff. The question is whether keeping those Trump supporters on your side in the spring is worth the inevitable downfall in the fall,” he added.

Both Bianco and Hilton have been supporters of Trump. Bianco, notably, endorsed Trump in the 2024 presidential election with the rather unique message of, “I think it’s time we put a felon in the White House,” a reference to the president’s felony convictions.

Lesenyie sees the gubernatorial race as an opportunity for Republican candidates to build their own fire — without expecting or waiting for Trump’s aid.

While GOP contenders can’t exactly run from Trump or drive a campaign outright opposing the president — Lesenyie said he would expect vague “like this policies but not his style” comments from Republicans during the gubernatorial race when asked about Trump — they’ve got to do their own heavy lifting.

“He’s not a party builder,” Lesenyie said of Trump. “Republicans should experiment with some unapologetically original policies and issue frames — especially if they aren’t going to rally with Trump across the state.”

In the meantime, now that California’s special election on redistricting is nearly officially finished, the race for governor is ramping up. And that means messaging will begin to really develop.